JFSP_research_product_search

Project ID:

24-2-06-7

Year:

2024

Date Started:

09/24/2024

Date Completed:

Title:

Advanced Spatial Data Analytics for Parcel- and Neighborhood-Level Wildfire Damage and Risk Assessment

Project Proposal Abstract:

1. Problem Statement
In recent decades, growth in the frequency, scale and severity of catastrophic wildfires has caused increasing levels of devastation in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), particularly in residential neighborhoods. While significant research and technical guidance is available to understand the potential risks of wildfire threats in the built environment, it primarily focuses on detailed characterizations of the hazard, generally lacking significance, and component-level detail of structure vulnerabilities as well as limited incorporation of the interrelationship of parcel-, neighborhood- and community-characteristics on structure survivability. This study aims to build a more detailed, localized WUI database to conduct data-driven statistical analysis and machine learning to enhance existing frameworks, methods, and tools; to characterize WUI risk more comprehensively; and to better inform wildfire resiliency planning, preparedness, decision-making, damage estimates, and response strategies at localized scales.
2. Objectives
The purpose of the proposed research is to help advance industry knowledge and understanding of holistic parcel-, neighborhood- and community-level wildfire risk to better inform mitigation planning, policies, programs, and regulatory efforts in the WUI. The aim is to develop (1) results-oriented, multi-scale factor enhancements to existing parcel-level WUI scoring tool(s); (2) comprehensive, multi-scale neighborhood and community-scale WUI risk scoring tools; and (3) probabilistic structure damage-loss potential models that are substantiated by assessments of real-world performance. This will be achieved using a combination of quantitative methods (e.g., geospatial statistical analysis, machine learning), semi-quantitative methods (e.g., retrospective analysis, expert panel review), and field data collection to understand, evaluate and design improvements to current tools and methodologies.
3. Benefits
The outcomes of this research will increase industry knowledge and understanding of the spatio-statistical significance and damage potential of wildfire risk at various scales. This will benefit fire departments, fire safety professionals, individuals and communities, providing the ability to prioritize, monitor and evaluate mitigations efforts of higher risk parcels and neighborhoods more effectively, as well as inform incentive structures for neighborhood programs such as Firewise. The tools and associated data dashboards will enhance wildfire education and awareness programs for individuals, community organizations and the general public. Project results will be summarized in conference papers, journal articles, PhD dissertations/theses and training workshops for fire professionals (e.g., SFPE, NFPA). In addition, researchers will coordinate with the JFSP Fire Exchange Network contacts to provide region specific findings for distribution to the broader wildland fire community.

Principal Investigator:

Alan T Murray

Agency/Organization:

University of California-Santa Barbara

Branch or Dept:

Department of Geography

Other Project Collaborators

Type	Name	Agency/Organization	Branch or Dept
Agreements Contact	Kelly Musselman	University of California-Santa Barbara	Research
Budget Contact	Alycia M Lewis
Co-Principal Investigator	Darlene T Rini	Jensen Hughes	Research, Development, Testing & Evaluation
Co-Principal Investigator	Max Moritz	University of California-Berkeley	Department of Environmental Sciences-Policy & Management