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12-3-01-6
2012
07/01/2012
09/29/2013
Sensitivity Analysis of Air Quality to Meteorological Data in Fire Simulations
The objective of this project is to calculate the sensitivities of pollutant concentrations, predicted with air quality models, to meteorological inputs and apply these estimates to quantify meteorology-related uncertainty in fire simulations. The results of this work will determine the degree to which air quality simulations are presently constrained by the uncertainty in meteorological fields produced by weather forecasting models. Specifically, the sensitivities of fine particulate matter concentrations to wind velocity (speed and direction), boundary layer height, and meteorological data resolution (temporal and spatial) will be analyzed. The uncertainty in weather forecasting model results will be assessed and applied to evaluate the meteorology-related uncertainty in air quality simulations of vegetative-burning. Several smoke episodes affecting urban areas in the Southeast U.S. will be simulated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) and Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Sensitivities of modeled PM2.5 concentrations to meteorological inputs will be quantified by using a second-order accurate estimate of first-order sensitivities derived from the central difference method adequate for primary pollutants. The uncertainties in meteorological inputs into air quality simulations will be assessed by evaluating the weather forecasts produced by WRF for the selected smoke episodes and used in conjunction with the sensitivity approximations for pollutant concentrations in air quality modeling to determine the range of meteorology-related uncertainties in the predicted pollutant levels. The project is expected to provide land-managers better understanding of air quality model results and identify research needs towards effective simulations of fire impacts.
Mehmet T. Odman
Georgia Institute of Technology
School of Civil & Environmental Engineering

Other Project Collaborators

Other Project Collaborators

Type

Name

Agency/Organization

Branch or Dept

Agreements Contact

Teri H. Hansen

Georgia Institute of Technology

Office of Sponsored Programs

Budget Contact

Teri H. Hansen

Georgia Institute of Technology

Office of Sponsored Programs

Student Investigator

Fernando Garcia Menendez

North Carolina State University-Raleigh

College of Engineering

Project Locations

Project Locations

Fire Science Exchange Network

Alaska

Appalachian

California

Great Basin

Great Plains

Lake States

Northern Rockies

Northwest

Oak Woodlands

Pacific

South

Southern Rockies

Southwest

Tallgrass

Level

State

Agency

Unit

STATE

GA

MULTIPLE

Final Report

Project Deliverables

Title
 
High-resolution 3-dimensional plume modeling with Eulerian atmospheric chemistry & transport modelsView
EM Magazine, a publication of the Air & Waste Management AssociationView
Journal of Geophysical Research: AtmospheresView
Mid-Project Progress ReportView
Sensitivity Analyses of Model-Related Inputs in Wildland Fire Simulations using CMAQView
High Resolution Three-Dimensional Modeling with an Adaptive Grid Regional-Scale Air Quality ModelView

Supporting Documents