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03-1-1-07
2003
07/29/2003
09/11/2006
Climate Drivers of Fire and Fuel in the Northern Rockies: Past, Present, and Future
We propose a 3-year research project to identify the climate drivers of regional fire and fuel dynamics in the Northern Rockies in the past, present, and future. We will identify regional fire years from two sources: multicentury tree-ring reconstructions and multidecadal fire atlases. To elucidate the climate forcing of past fires, we will reconstruct the occurrence of regional fire years from synchrony in fire-scar dates among at least 15 widely separated sites in the region. The fire histories that have previously been reconstructed in the Northern Rockies were not crossdated and so cannot be used to elucidate the climate forcing of fire at the annual time scales that are critical for fire management. To elucidate present, i.e., twentieth-century, climate forcing of fires, we will use previously digitized fire atlases from at least 11 national forest in the region. In spite of their potential for identifying synchronous and extensive regional fire years, fire atlases have not yet been used to assess fire-climate relationships. To elucidate future climate forcing of fire, we will use simulation modeling. We will parameterize the simulation model LANDSUM using the past and present climate forcing we derive from fire atlases and fire scars. We will model the degree to which fuels management has influenced fire extent during modern regional fire years, and simulate the future consequences of fuels management. We will submit 5 manuscripts to refereed journals and educate two M.S. graduate students. To ensure that our results are useful to fire managers, we will present our results at four to six meetings and two workshops with managers. Increasingly, it is possible to predict climate for future fire seasons, so our information will help fire managers anticipate when fire management must focus primarily on fire suppression versus fuel management, and where such fuel management is likely to affect fire behavior during future regional fire years. Our research thus addresses Task 1 of JFSP AFP 2003-1, which calls for "characterizing past, present and future fuel and fIre regimes" under "changing climate and altered climate variability." Through planned workshops and technology transfer activities, we will also provide "applications for long-range fire management planning."
Penny Morgan
University of Idaho
Department of Forest Resources

Other Project Collaborators

Other Project Collaborators

Type

Name

Agency/Organization

Branch or Dept

Co-Principal Investigator

Carol L. Miller

Forest Service

RMRS-Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute

Co-Principal Investigator

Matthew G. Rollins

Forest Service

WO-Research & Development

Federal Cooperator

Emily K. Heyerdahl

Forest Service

RMRS-Fire Sciences Lab-Missoula

Project Locations

Project Locations

Fire Science Exchange Network

Northern Rockies

Northwest

Level

State

Agency

Unit

Final Report

Project Deliverables

Title
 
Fire and Climate in the Northern RockiesView
How to Recognize Old Ponderosa Pine Trees That Have Seen Lots of FireView
Short Reports on Local Historical Fire Regimes for Each Fire-Scar SiteView
Outreach Letter Written to Land Managers When We Were Assembling Data for the Fire AtlasView
Fire History of a Western Montana Ponderosa Pine Grassland: A Pilot StudyView
Professional Paper Series No. 23. pp. 30-36.View
Condition of Live Fire-Scarred Ponderosa Pine Trees Six Years After Removing Partial Cross SectionsView
Fire Ecology Special IssueView
A Northern Rocky Mountain Polygon Fire History: Accuracy, Limitations, Strengths, Applications, and Recommended Protocol of Digital Fire Perimeter Data (C.E. Gibson)View
Historical Fire Records: Comparison of Fire Scars, Fire Atlases, and Satellite Data in the Northwestern United States (L.B. Shapiro)View
View
Climate Drivers of Historical Surface Fires in the Northern Rocky Mountains, USA: Preliminary ResultsView
International Multiproxy Paleofire DatabaseView
International Multiproxy Paleofire DatabaseView
View

Supporting Documents

Document Title
 
Climate Drivers of Fire and Fuel in the Northern Rockies: Past, Present, and FutureView
Climate and Fire in the Northern Rockies: Past, Present, and FutureView