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Project ID: 10-1-07-29

Year: 2010

Date Started: 08/01/2010

Date Completed: 09/30/2015

Title: Forecasting Integrated Lightning and Fuels Ignition Potentials in a System with Real-Time Analysis of Fire Weather Prediction Accuracy

Project Proposal Abstract: Fire weather forecasters, fire planners, and decision makers do not have easy access to information needed to verify the accuracy of, or to communicate the level of confidence in, fire weather forecasts and the fire prediction products that depend on fire weather forecasts. In this project we will produce a set of intuitive, easily understandable meteorological model performance assessments to provide end-users with real-time information about meteorological model bias, model reliability, and overall performance of predictions of fire weather variables used in predictions of ignition risk potential. In addition, our proposed system provides levels of confidence for fire weather forecasts, forecasted dry lightning probabilities, and forecasted fuel moisture conditions by integrating fire weather forecasts, the Rorig dry lightning prediction model, Bothwells perfect prognosis forecast (PPF) predictions of precipitation amounts, and gridded fuels information in a system that produces digital maps of current, historical, and forecasted fire weather; dry lightning probabilities; and fuels ignition potentials. Our system will provide an easily accessible set of web-based products that include (1) color contour displays of sustained ignition probability at 1-km for the western United States; (2) color contour displays of key meteorological parameter forecasts; and (3) information about confidence in the meteorological forecasts, time-series plots, and statistics that provide model-to-model and model-to-observation comparisons. The results will aid decision makers in positioning resources, making go/no go decisions on prescribed burns, determining when fire might be used to meet resource management needs, and determining the local certainty of fire weather forecasts.

Principal Investigator: Miriam L. Rorig

Agency/Organization: Forest Service

Branch or Dept: PNW-Pacific Northwest Research Station

Other Project Collaborators




Branch or Dept

Co-Principal Investigator

Phillip Bothwell

NOAA-National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

NCEP-Storm Prediction Center

Co-Principal Investigator

Stacy A. Drury

Sonoma Technology Inc.

Fire & Forest Ecology

Co-Principal Investigator

Neil J. Wheeler

Atmospheric Sciences International

Federal Cooperator

Brian E. Potter

Forest Service

PNW-Seattle-Managing Natural Disturbances

Federal Fiscal Representative

Rebecca A. Slick

Forest Service

PNW-Pacific Northwest Research Station

Project Locations





Great Basin

Great Plains

Lake States

Oak Woodlands

Northern Rockies




Southern Rockies








Project Deliverables

Final Report view or print

("Results presented in JFSP Final Reports may not have been peer-reviewed and should be interpreted as tentative until published in a peer-reviewed source.")

  ID Type Title
view or print   3631 Journal Article International Journal of Wildland Fire
view or print   3632 Journal Article International Journal of Wildland Fire
view or print   337 MS Thesis A perfect prog approach to forecasting dry thunderstorms over the CONUS and Alaska.
view or print   7710 Website Fire Weather Forecast Accuracy Assessment and Lightning Ignition Probability System User Guide

Supporting Documents

There are no supporting documents available for this project.

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