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Project ID: 08-1-6-04

Year: 2008

Date Started: 10/01/2008

Date Completed: 11/11/2011

Title: Evaluation of Smoke Models and Sensitivity Analysis for Determining their Emission Related Uncertainties

Project Proposal Abstract: This proposal seeks to evaluate existing and new smoke models and to assess the emissions related uncertainties in model predictions. The models to be evaluated are CALPUFF as used in the Blusky framework; the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model; DAYSMOKE as an emissions injector to CMAQ; and two new variations of CMAQ that can potentially improve the predictions of smoke impacts. A balanced mix of several prescribed burn and wildfire episodes in the Southeast will be simulated with each model. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone predictions in the long range (~100 km downwind from the fires; sometimes closer, sometimes farther) will be the primary concern of the evaluations. Existing datasets from routine monitoring networks as well as special measurements, such as those conducted by Georgia Tech around Atlanta, will be employed. In addition to statistical performance evaluations, diagnostic evaluations will be conducted to identify the strengths and weaknesses of each model. Towards the second objective, the sensitivities of modeled concentrations to various emission parameters will be computed using the Direct Decoupled Method (DDM) tool recently installed in CMAQ. The probability ranges and distributions of the emission parameters will be determined using conventional methods. Finally, using a Monte Carlo method, the DDM-computed sensitivities, and a linear Taylor series approximation to the model predictions, the probability density functions of modeled concentrations will be derived. This will provide the decision makers with critical information on the uncertainty of model outputs and point to new directions for emissions measurement research. The products of this research can potentially stimulate an ensemble simulation approach to the prediction and forecasting of smoke impacts.

Principal Investigator: Mehmet T. Odman

Agency/Organization: Georgia Institute of Technology

Branch or Dept: School of Civil & Environmental Engineering


Other Project Collaborators

Type

Name

Agency/Organization

Branch or Dept

Co-Principal Investigator

Scott L. Goodrick

Forest Service

SRS-Ctr for Forest Disturbance Science

Federal Cooperator

Scott L. Goodrick

Forest Service

SRS-Ctr for Forest Disturbance Science


Project Locations

Consortium

South


Level

State

Agency

Unit

REGIONAL

Southeast

MULTIPLE


Project Deliverables

Final Report view or print

("Results presented in JFSP Final Reports may not have been peer-reviewed and should be interpreted as tentative until published in a peer-reviewed source.")

  ID Type Title
view or print   3036 Journal Article Atmospheric Pollution Research
view or print   4630 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Coupling a Sub-Grid Scale Plume Model for Biomass Burns with Adaptive Grid CMAQ: Part 2
  go to website 4631 Website Smoke IMpact Prediction Center (SIP-C) website
view or print   3840 Photo A Mobile Unit Used for PM2.5 Measurements
view or print   3841 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Development of a Modeling System for Prescribed Burn Emissions and Air Quality Impacts
view or print   3842 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Development of a Modeling System for Prescribed Burn Emissions and Air Quality Impacts
view or print   3843 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Evaluation of Air Quality Models Applied to Wildland Fire Impact Simulation
view or print   3844 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Modeling Biomass Burnings by Coupling a Sub-Grid Scale Plume Model with Adaptive Grid CMAQ
view or print   3845 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Modeling Biomass Burnings by Coupling a Sub-Grid Scale Plume Model with Adaptive Grid DMAQ
view or print   3846 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Modeling the Air Quality Impacts of Wildfires with CMAQ
view or print   3847 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Analysis of Vertical Fire Emissions Distribution in CMAQ
view or print   3901 Conference/Symposia/Workshop A High Resolution Modeling System for Regional Carbonaceous Aerosols
view or print   3902 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Modeling Biomass Burnings by Coupling a Sub-Grid Scale Plume Model with Adaptive Grid CMAQ
view or print   3903 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Uncertainties in Prescribed Fire Emissions and Their Impact on Smoke Dispersion Predictions
view or print   4479 Photo Performing Model Evaluation
view or print   4480 Photo Vantage Point of a Mobile Unit Chasing the Plume

Supporting Documents

There are no supporting documents available for this project.

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