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Project ID: 06-1-1-12

Year: 2006

Date Started: 07/07/2006

Date Completed: 11/18/2009

Title: Rapid Response Field Observations to Calibrate the BlueSky Smoke Prediction Model

Project Proposal Abstract: The BlueSky smoke modeling framework, developed with support from the National Fire Plan, provides real-time predictions of surface smoke concentrations from prescribed fires, wildfires, and agricultural burns. The predictions are currently being used by air quality regulators and land managers to assess the impacts from planned and ongoing fires. We will calibrate and make model improvements to the BlueSky modeling framework through intensive observation / prediction comparisons of smoke concentrations. Observations will be made in rapid response to ongoing wildland fire use (WFU) fires in the western lower 48 states. WFU fires are chosen because they can exhibit significant growth over a long period, thereby maximizing the amount of data collected through each deployment. Wildfires will also be considered as appropriate. Prescribed fires have minimal smoke plumes and will not be considered. Two WFUs will be selected and monitored each year for each of 2 years. A large number of smoke monitors (15+) will be placed in an optimized array designed to best capture the smoke impact pattern. All monitoring will be away from the fire, reflecting downstream impacts, thereby negating any impacts on firefighting efforts. This process has been proven to be useful through the BlueSkyRAINS West 2005 demonstration project. The BlueSky modeling system will be run in real-time to compare predictions with observations, and will also be run after the fact with differing paramaterizations. Using standard statistical measures the best fit set of model parameters will be used to adjust all future BlueSky predictions. The result will be the calibration ("tuning") of the BlueSky framework for optimal model performance yielding an enhanced smoke prediction capability.

Principal Investigator: Narasimhan K. Larkin

Agency/Organization: Forest Service

Branch or Dept: PNW-AirFire Research Team


Other Project Collaborators

Type

Name

Agency/Organization

Branch or Dept

Co-Principal Investigator

Robert Solomon

Forest Service

PNW-Seattle-Managing Natural Disturbances

Co-Principal Investigator

Tara M. Strand

NZ Crown Research Institute (Scion)

Federal Cooperator

Narasimhan K. Larkin

Forest Service

PNW-AirFire Research Team


Project Locations

Consortium

Alaska

Appalachian

California

Great Basin

Great Plains

Lake States

Oak Woodlands

Northern Rockies

Northwest

Pacific

South

Southern Rockies

Southwest

Tallgrass


There are no project locations identified for this project.

Project Deliverables

Final Report view or print

("Results presented in JFSP Final Reports may not have been peer-reviewed and should be interpreted as tentative until published in a peer-reviewed source.")

  ID Type Title
  go to website 2870 Journal Article PM2.5 Measurements in Wildfire Smoke Plumes from Fire Seson 2005-2008 in the Northwestern United States
    37 Invited Paper/Presentation California Air Response Planning Alliance, Air Quality in Emergency Response: Monitoring, Modeling, Messaging, and Media
    38 Invited Paper/Presentation WESTAR Fall Business Meeting
    46 Conference/Symposia/Workshop 7th Fire and Forest Meteorology Conference (AMS)
    50 Conference/Symposia/Workshop 7th Fire and Forest Meteorology Conference (AMS)
    52 Conference/Symposia/Workshop BlueSky Annual Meeting
    55 Conference/Symposia/Workshop 2nd Fuels Management and Fire Behavior Conference
    57 Poster 2nd Fuels Management and Fire Behavior Conference
    60 Poster AGU Fall Meeting
    132 Invited Paper/Presentation California Air Response Planning Alliance, Air Quality in Emergency Response: Monitoring, Modeling, Messaging, and Media
    873 Invited Paper/Presentation Biomass Co-oP Meeting
  go to website 1084 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Analysis conducted resulted in model improvements that were incorporated into daily prediction systems used by clients. Improved BlueSky modules available on web.
    1085 Training Session This work was discussed with users by incorporating it into on-going training efforts. These occur at least 2x/year.
    1086 Conference/Symposia/Workshop This work was discussed with users and researchers through a dedicated presentation and discussion at the BlueSky annual meetings. The 2007 BlueSky annual meeting in Winthrop, WA focused on this project at the Tripod Fire.
  go to website 3034 Dataset (including spatial) Smoke monitoring dataset from N. California fires Summer 2008.
  go to website 2491 Website Website displaying field observation data graphics and allowing for download of data directly.
    2551 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Presentation at BlueSky Annual Meeting (2006)
  go to website 2552 Field Demonstration/Tour Smoke monitoring at the Tripod/Spur fire. Aug-Oct 2006.
  go to website 5256 Dataset (including spatial) Smoke monitoring dataset from Tripod/Spur fire. Aug-Oct 2006.
    4080 Conference/Symposia/Workshop National Air Quality Conferences
    4081 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Changing Fire Regimes, Goals and Ecosystems
    4082 Conference/Symposia/Workshop NASA Biomass Burning Coordination Meeting
    4083 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Changing Fire Regimes, Goals and Ecosystems
    4134 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Changing Fire Regimes, Goals and Ecosystems
  go to website 4260 Dataset (including spatial) Smoke monitoring data from Idaho / Montana for August-September 2007.
  go to website 6370 Field Demonstration/Tour Smoke monitoring for the Northern California wildfires 2008.
  go to website 6627 Dataset (including spatial) Website containing speciality BlueSky runs and smoke monitoring information prepared for USFS Region 5.
  go to website 5927 Field Demonstration/Tour Smoke monitoring in Idaho/Montana. August-September 2007
  go to website 7035 Dataset (including spatial) As each smoke monitoring effort is completed, data will be gathered and compiled with documentation and explanation. This data will then be made available to federal, state, and local agencies, as well as the public for general use.

Supporting Documents

There are no supporting documents available for this project.

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