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Project ID: 01-1-6-08

Year: 2001

Date Started: 09/19/2001

Date Completed: 07/01/2005

Title: Predicting Lightning Risk

Project Proposal Abstract: Lightning causes most wildfires in the western United States, and is a major cause of fire elsewhere in the U.S. Because most lightning occurs with significant precipitation, however, simple predictions of Lightning Activity Level (LAL) do not accurately determine fire ignition potential. We propose to incorporate existing weather predictions into tactical fire preparedness and planning by adapting a methodology to assess the risk of "dry" lightning (that which occurs without accompanying rainfall). Based on atmospheric moisture and stability variables, we will develop discriminant rules that assign a probability of dry lightning over the United States, using a method that we created and tested in the northwestern U.S. (Rorig and Ferguson 1999). The results will be presented on maps and in tables that will be available via the Internet. In addition, we will apply and test the rule to mesoscale weather models (MM5) that currently operate in real-time support of fire weather predictions in Florida and the northwestern U 5, making the nile available for regional fire-weather modeling with MM5 being planned in other parts of the country Fire weather forecasters will be able to use these results to improve predictions of lightning-caused fire ignitions .

Principal Investigator: Miriam L. Rorig

Agency/Organization: Forest Service

Branch or Dept: PNW-Pacific Northwest Research Station


Other Project Collaborators

Type

Name

Agency/Organization

Branch or Dept

Co-Principal Investigator

Sue A. Ferguson

Forest Service

PNW-Seattle-Managing Natural Disturbances

Co-Principal Investigator

Scott L. Goodrick

Forest Service

SRS-Ctr for Forest Disturbance Science

Co-Principal Investigator

Paul A. Werth

Weather Research & Consulting Services

LLC Private Consultant

Federal Cooperator

Miriam L. Rorig

Forest Service

PNW-Pacific Northwest Research Station


Project Locations

Consortium

South


There are no project locations identified for this project.

Project Deliverables

Final Report view or print

("Results presented in JFSP Final Reports may not have been peer-reviewed and should be interpreted as tentative until published in a peer-reviewed source.")

  ID Type Title
view or print   2492 Journal Article Forecasting Dry Lightning in the Western United States
    338 Conference/Symposia/Workshop 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology
    339 Dataset (including spatial) Climate Analysis Tool
    975 Invited Paper/Presentation Meeting with Predictive Services
    976 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Northwest Fuels Workshop
    977 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Regional Coordination Meeting of the Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab
    3333 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Forecasting Dry Lightning Risk in the Northwestern United States
    3334 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Predicting Dry Lightning Risk in the Western United States
    3341 Invited Paper/Presentation Presentation to the Fall 2004 Meeting of the Pacific Northwest Coordination Center
    2683 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Forecasting Dry Lightning Risk in the Northwestern United States
    2684 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Predicting Dry Lightning Risk in the Western United States
  go to website 2685 Website  
    2686 Invited Paper/Presentation Presentation to the Fall 2004 Meeting of the Pacific Northwest Coordination Center
    2544 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Forecasting Dry Lightning Risk in the Northwestern United States
    2545 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Predicting Dry Lightning Risk in the Western United States
    2553 Invited Paper/Presentation Presentation to the Fall 2004 Meeting of the Pacific Northwest Coordination Center
    7273 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Fall 2004 Meeting of the Northwest Coordination Center

Supporting Documents

The following supporting documents are available for this project.

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Brief


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