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Project ID: 01-1-6-07

Year: 2001

Date Started: 09/19/2001

Date Completed: 11/11/2004

Title: Assessing the Value of Mesoscale Models in Predicting Fire Danger

Project Proposal Abstract: Fine-scale weather data are becoming increasing available for fire weather and fire danger forecasting to support tactical fire preparedness and prescnbed fire planning. Unfortunately, appropriate techniques to implement the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) with short-range predictions of fine-scale weather do not exist Also, little is known about how accurate fine-scale models are compared to coarser-scale products. We propose to I) integrate NFDRS with fine-scale, numerical weather predictions (MM5) and test it in operational environments as a tool for anticipating wildfire danger and potential prescribed-fire opportunities and 2) use a case study of the 2000 fire season to identify appropriate spatial scales for fire danger assessments and predictions. This work supports regional modeling programs being developed under the 2000 Fire Plan (PNW-3, PSW-440l-1, NC-l,4, SRS-4104-l) and complements 2001 JFSP proposals to analyze and predict fire climate (Hostetler, Roads, Brown), develop an automated fire preparedness resource allocation system (Day), and apply a dry lightning algorithm to grid-point weather data (Rorig).

Principal Investigator: Jeanne Hoadley

Agency/Organization: Forest Service

Branch or Dept: PNW-Seattle-Managing Natural Disturbances


Other Project Collaborators

Type

Name

Agency/Organization

Branch or Dept

Co-Principal Investigator

Larry Bradshaw

Forest Service

RMRS-Fire Sciences Lab-Missoula

Co-Principal Investigator

Sue A. Ferguson

Forest Service

PNW-Seattle-Managing Natural Disturbances

Co-Principal Investigator

Scott L. Goodrick

Forest Service

SRS-Ctr for Forest Disturbance Science

Co-Principal Investigator

Paul A. Werth

Weather Research & Consulting Services

LLC Private Consultant

Collaborator/Contributor

Steven W. Hostetler

USGS-Geological Survey

Water Resources Division-Corvallis

Federal Cooperator

Jeanne Hoadley

Forest Service

PNW-Seattle-Managing Natural Disturbances


Project Locations

Consortium

Other


There are no project locations identified for this project.

Project Deliverables

Final Report view or print

("Results presented in JFSP Final Reports may not have been peer-reviewed and should be interpreted as tentative until published in a peer-reviewed source.")

  ID Type Title
    1190 Government Publication Assessing the Value of Increased Model Resolution in Forecasting Fire Danger
    2685 Journal Article Evaluation of MM5 Model Resolution When Applied to Prediction of National Fire Danger Rating Indexes
    191 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop, Seattle WA March 2003
  go to website 192 Dataset (including spatial) Access to NFDRS predictions in other regions as it becomes implemented
  go to website 193 Website Access to NFDRS and MM5 predictions in the Northwestern US
  go to website 194 Website Description of the 2000 fire season case study
    300 Conference/Symposia/Workshop 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology and the 2nd International Wildland Fire Ecology and Fire Management Congress , Orlando, Florida, November 2003
    3336 Conference/Symposia/Workshop MM5 - NFDRS Forecast System
    3337 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop
    3338 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Region 6 Fuels Workshop
    2541 Conference/Symposia/Workshop MM5 - NFDRS Forecast System
    2542 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop
    2543 Conference/Symposia/Workshop Region 6 Fuels Workshop
    5249 Poster Assessing the Value of Increased Model Resolution in Forecasting Fire Danger
    7272 Poster Assessing the Value of Increased Model Resolution in Forecasting Fire Danger

Supporting Documents

The following supporting documents are available for this project.

view or print

Brief


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