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Project ID: 12-3-01-6

Year: 2012

Date Started: 07/01/2012

Ending Date:  09/30/2013

Title: Sensitivity Analysis of Air Quality to Meteorological Data in Fire Simulations

Project Proposal Abstract: The objective of this project is to calculate the sensitivities of pollutant concentrations, predicted with air quality models, to meteorological inputs and apply these estimates to quantify meteorology-related uncertainty in fire simulations. The results of this work will determine the degree to which air quality simulations are presently constrained by the uncertainty in meteorological fields produced by weather forecasting models. Specifically, the sensitivities of fine particulate matter concentrations to wind velocity (speed and direction), boundary layer height, and meteorological data resolution (temporal and spatial) will be analyzed. The uncertainty in weather forecasting model results will be assessed and applied to evaluate the meteorology-related uncertainty in air quality simulations of vegetative-burning. Several smoke episodes affecting urban areas in the Southeast U.S. will be simulated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) and Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Sensitivities of modeled PM2.5 concentrations to meteorological inputs will be quantified by using a second-order accurate estimate of first-order sensitivities derived from the central difference method adequate for primary pollutants. The uncertainties in meteorological inputs into air quality simulations will be assessed by evaluating the weather forecasts produced by WRF for the selected smoke episodes and used in conjunction with the sensitivity approximations for pollutant concentrations in air quality modeling to determine the range of meteorology-related uncertainties in the predicted pollutant levels. The project is expected to provide land-managers better understanding of air quality model results and identify research needs towards effective simulations of fire impacts.

Principal Investigator: Mehmet T. Odman

Agency/Organization: Georgia Institute of Technology

Branch or Dept: School of Civil & Environmental Engineering

Other Project Collaborators

Type	Name	Agency/Organization	Branch or Dept
Budget Contact	Teri H. Hansen	Georgia Institute of Technology	Office of Sponsored Programs
Grants and Agreements Contact	Teri H. Hansen	Georgia Institute of Technology	Office of Sponsored Programs
Lead Reviewer	Leda N. Kobziar	University of Florida	School of Forest Resources & Conservation
Lead Reviewer	Monique E. Rocca	Colorado State University	Department of Forest, Rangeland & Watershed Stewardship
Student Investigator	Fernando Garcia Menendez	Georgia Institute of Technology	School of Civil & Environmental Engineering

Project Locations

Consortium

Alaska

Appalachian

California

Great Basin

Great Plains

Lake States

Oak Woodlands

Northern Rockies

Northwest

Pacific

South

Southern Rockies

Southwest

Tallgrass

Level	State	Agency	Unit
STATE	GA	MULTIPLE

Project Deliverables

There is no final report available for this project.

	ID	Type	Title
	10298	Conference/Symposia/Workshop	High Resolution Three-Dimensional Modeling with an Adaptive Grid Regional-Scale Air Quality Model
	10297	Conference/Symposia/Workshop	Sensitivity Analyses of Model-Related Inputs in Wildland Fire Simulations using CMAQ
	10296	Final Report Supplement	Mid-Project Progress Report

Supporting Documents

There are no supporting documents available for this project.

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