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Project ID: 10-1-07-29

Year: 2010

Date Started: 08/01/2010

Ending Date:  08/31/2013

Title: Forecasting Integrated Lightning and Fuels Ignition Potentials in a System with Real-Time Analysis of Fire Weather Prediction Accuracy

Project Proposal Abstract: Fire weather forecasters, fire planners, and decision makers do not have easy access to information needed to verify the accuracy of, or to communicate the level of confidence in, fire weather forecasts and the fire prediction products that depend on fire weather forecasts. In this project we will produce a set of intuitive, easily understandable meteorological model performance assessments to provide end-users with real-time information about meteorological model bias, model reliability, and overall performance of predictions of fire weather variables used in predictions of ignition risk potential. In addition, our proposed system provides levels of confidence for fire weather forecasts, forecasted dry lightning probabilities, and forecasted fuel moisture conditions by integrating fire weather forecasts, the Rorig dry lightning prediction model, Bothwells perfect prognosis forecast (PPF) predictions of precipitation amounts, and gridded fuels information in a system that produces digital maps of current, historical, and forecasted fire weather; dry lightning probabilities; and fuels ignition potentials. Our system will provide an easily accessible set of web-based products that include (1) color contour displays of sustained ignition probability at 1-km for the western United States; (2) color contour displays of key meteorological parameter forecasts; and (3) information about confidence in the meteorological forecasts, time-series plots, and statistics that provide model-to-model and model-to-observation comparisons. The results will aid decision makers in positioning resources, making go/no go decisions on prescribed burns, determining when fire might be used to meet resource management needs, and determining the local certainty of fire weather forecasts.

Principal Investigator: Miriam L. Rorig

Agency/Organization: Forest Service

Branch or Dept: PNW-Pacific Northwest Research Station

Other Project Collaborators

Type	Name	Agency/Organization	Branch or Dept
Co-Principal Investigator	Phillip Bothwell	NOAA-National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration	NCEP-Storm Prediction Center
Co-Principal Investigator	Stacy A. Drury	Sonoma Technology Inc.	Fire & Forest Ecology
Co-Principal Investigator	Neil J. Wheeler	Sonoma Technology Inc.	Atmospheric Modeling & Information Systems
Federal Cooperator	Brian E. Potter	Forest Service	PNW-Seattle-Managing Natural Disturbances
Federal Fiscal Representative	Rebecca A. Slick	Forest Service	PNW-Pacific Northwest Research Station

Project Locations

Consortium

Alaska

Appalachian

California

Great Basin

Great Plains

Lake States

Oak Woodlands

Northern Rockies

Northwest

Pacific

South

Southern Rockies

Southwest

Tallgrass

Level	State	Agency	Unit
N/A

Project Deliverables

There is no final report available for this project.

	ID	Type	Title

Supporting Documents

There are no supporting documents available for this project.

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