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Project ID: 11-1-7-2

Year: 2011

Date Started: 10/01/2011

Ending Date:  09/30/2013

Title: Impacts of Mega-Fires on Large U.S. Urban Area Air Quality Under Changing Climate and Fuels

Project Proposal Abstract: Mega-fires can adversely impact air quality in the United States and the impact is likely to become more severe in the future due to the possibly more frequent and intense mega-fires in response to the projected climate change. This study investigates mega-fires and their air quality impacts with a focus on the future trends under changing climate change fuel conditions and will provide information for understanding the questions stated in the Task 7 of the JFSP RFA 2011. A comprehensive approach of data analysis, algorithm development, and numerical modeling will be used to understand the areas and seasons of present mega-fires, project their future trends, and simulate fuel loading and smoke transport. The dynamical downscaling of regional climate change will be used to calculate present and future fire potential indices and analyze atmospheric patterns and properties as thresholds for mega-fire breakout. Ensemble results will be obtained for multiple combinations of global-regional climate model simulations. The objectives include: (1) to build mega-fire probability functions with respect to drought levels measured by fire indices and atmospheric patterns and property thresholds, (2) to project future mega-fires, (3) to obtain present and future fuel loading based on fuel conditions and simulated carbon pools, (4) to simulate smoke trajectories using a smoke transport model, and (5) to evaluate the smoke impacts on air quality in large U.S. urban areas. The research products will be delivered to field managers and researchers through a workshop or training session, conference presentations, journal publications, and webpage. The results are expected to provide essential information for further evaluation of the potential smoke impacts on human health. The applications of dynamical downscaling of regional climate change scenarios and change in fuel loading should improve our understanding of future mega-fire trends and impacts obtained from recent studies. The projection of future trends in mega-fires will provide useful information to fire and land managers and policy makers for developing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Principal Investigator: Yongqiang Liu

Agency/Organization: Forest Service

Branch or Dept: SRS-Ctr for Forest Disturbance Science

Other Project Collaborators

Type	Name	Agency/Organization	Branch or Dept
Budget Contact	Shelly M. Gates	Forest Service	SRS-Southern Research Station
Co-Principal Investigator	John Stanturf	Forest Service	SRS-Forestry Sciences Lab-Athens GA
Co-Principal Investigator	Hanquin H. Tian	Auburn University	School of Forestry & Wildlife Sciences
Collaborator/Contributor	Scott L. Goodrick	Forest Service	SRS-Ctr for Forest Disturbance Science
Federal Cooperator	Yongqiang Liu	Forest Service	SRS-Ctr for Forest Disturbance Science
Grants and Agreements Contact	Joyce M. Gorgas	Forest Service	SRS-Southern Research Station

Project Locations

Consortium

Alaska

Appalachian

California

Great Basin

Great Plains

Lake States

Oak Woodlands

Northern Rockies

Northwest

Pacific

South

Southern Rockies

Southwest

Tallgrass

Level	State	Agency	Unit
NATIONAL		FS

Project Deliverables

There is no final report available for this project.

	ID	Type	Title
	10043	Refereed Publication	Future U.S. Wildfire Potential Trends Projected Using a Dynamically Downscaled Climate Change Scenario
	10150	NonRefereed Publication	Detailed 2012 Annual Report

Supporting Documents

There are no supporting documents available for this project.

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