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Project ID: 15-1-06-1

Year: 2015

Date Started: 09/01/2015

Ending Date:  09/30/2018

Title: Relative Importance of Weather and Socio-Cultural Factors to Fire Managers’ Decisions

Project Proposal Abstract: This study will examine the social and physical factors that influence decision-making by fire managers through a series of interviews and surveys using actual and hypothetical scenarios. The different scenarios will help us to discern when weather over mountainous southern and central California plays a role in decisions and when it is a minor consideration by identifying the human factors that also influence decision-making. Many factors beyond technical information (weather, fire behavior) influence decision making so this study is designed to identify the relative importance of social and technical factors on decisions made by individuals (IC) and groups (Incident Management Team-IMT). Because technical information is translated by specialists who brief decision makers, the proposed study design will enable us to isolate these factors. The scenarios will be designed to gain an understanding of the sensitivity of decisions to changes in social and economic factors such as risk, experience, societal expectations, and political environment. It is important to note that at the end of each phase a round of group discussions will be completed to better ascertain the motivation behind the decision making process undertaken and the relevance of the information provided; this is also a way to evaluate the validity of the scenarios presented to participants. Several levels of benefits are to be expected from this type of research. First, at the general level, it will help ascertain whether meteorologists discriminate the information they provide to fire managers decision makers based on the initial resolution of the meteorological information they receive from the National Weather Service. This is relevant because it can result in potential costs savings by not generating unnecessary finer resolution data. Second, it will help us answer questions about the relevancy of the meteorological data in fire managers decision making process. If fire managers decisions are greatly affected by finer resolution data, again it could result in significant cost savings in fire suppression operations by improving managers capabilities to reposition firefighting resources thus improving firefighting effectiveness. Third, this information could also result in reducing ecosystems services losses by the potential reduction in total area affected.

Principal Investigator: David R. Weise

Agency/Organization: Forest Service

Branch or Dept: PSW-Forest Fire Lab-Riverside


Other Project Collaborators

Type

Name

Agency/Organization

Branch or Dept

Agreements Contact

Brian T. Hanlon

Forest Service

PSW-Pacific Southwest Research Station

Budget Contact

Anna Wong

Forest Service

PSW-Pacific Southwest Research Station

Co-Principal Investigator

Shyh C Chen

Forest Service

PSW-Forest Fire Lab-Riverside

Co-Principal Investigator

Armando X. Gonzalez-Caban

Forest Service

PSW-Forest Fire Lab-Riverside

Co-Principal Investigator

Donald G. MacGregor

MacGregor-Bates, Inc

Co-Principal Investigator

Haiganoush K Preisler

Forest Service

PSW-Pacific Southwest Research Station

Co-Principal Investigator

Jose J. Sanchez

Forest Service

PSW-Forest Fire Lab-Riverside

Collaborator/Contributor

Mitchell R. Burgard

Forest Service

RMRS-Rocky Mountain Research Station

Collaborator/Contributor

Daniel J. Felix

Forest Service

San Bernardino NF-Idyllwild Ranger Station

Collaborator/Contributor

Tom Rolinski

Forest Service

Region 5-Fire & Aviation Management-Vallejo


Project Locations

Fire Science Exchange Network

California


Level

State

Agency

Unit

NATIONAL

FED

STATE

CA

MULTIPLE


Project Deliverables

There is no final report available for this project.
There are no deliverables available for this project.

Supporting Documents

There are no supporting documents available for this project.

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