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Project ID: 08-1-6-04

Year: 2008

Date Started: 10/01/2008

Date Completed: 11/11/2011

Title: Evaluation of Smoke Models and Sensitivity Analysis for Determining their Emission Related Uncertainties

Project Proposal Abstract: This proposal seeks to evaluate existing and new smoke models and to assess the emissions related uncertainties in model predictions. The models to be evaluated are CALPUFF as used in the Blusky framework; the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model; DAYSMOKE as an emissions injector to CMAQ; and two new variations of CMAQ that can potentially improve the predictions of smoke impacts. A balanced mix of several prescribed burn and wildfire episodes in the Southeast will be simulated with each model. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone predictions in the long range (~100 km downwind from the fires; sometimes closer, sometimes farther) will be the primary concern of the evaluations. Existing datasets from routine monitoring networks as well as special measurements, such as those conducted by Georgia Tech around Atlanta, will be employed. In addition to statistical performance evaluations, diagnostic evaluations will be conducted to identify the strengths and weaknesses of each model. Towards the second objective, the sensitivities of modeled concentrations to various emission parameters will be computed using the Direct Decoupled Method (DDM) tool recently installed in CMAQ. The probability ranges and distributions of the emission parameters will be determined using conventional methods. Finally, using a Monte Carlo method, the DDM-computed sensitivities, and a linear Taylor series approximation to the model predictions, the probability density functions of modeled concentrations will be derived. This will provide the decision makers with critical information on the uncertainty of model outputs and point to new directions for emissions measurement research. The products of this research can potentially stimulate an ensemble simulation approach to the prediction and forecasting of smoke impacts.

Principal Investigator: Mehmet T. Odman

Agency/Organization: Georgia Institute of Technology

Branch or Dept: School of Civil & Environmental Engineering

Other Project Collaborators

Type	Name	Agency/Organization	Branch or Dept
Co-Principal Investigator	Scott L. Goodrick	Forest Service	SRS-Ctr for Forest Disturbance Science
Federal Cooperator	Scott L. Goodrick	Forest Service	SRS-Ctr for Forest Disturbance Science

Project Locations

Consortium

South

Level	State	Agency	Unit
REGIONAL	Southeast	MULTIPLE

Project Deliverables

Final Report ("Results presented in JFSP Final Reports may not have been peer-reviewed and should be interpreted as tentative until published in a peer-reviewed source.")

	ID	Type	Title
	9537	Refereed Publication	Adaptive Grid Use in Air Quality Modeling
	9535	Refereed Publication	An Adaptive Grid Version of CMAQ for Improving the Resolution of Plumes
	9536	Refereed Publication	Modeling Smoke Plume-Rise and Dispersion from Southern United States Prescribed Burns with Daysmoke
	9548	Conference/Symposia/Workshop	Uncertainties in Prescribed Fire Emissions and Their Impact on Smoke Dispersion Predictions
	9551	Conference/Symposia/Workshop	Coupling a Sub-Grid Scale Plume Model for Biomass Burns with Adaptive Grid CMAQ: Part 2
	9541	Conference/Symposia/Workshop	Development of a Modeling System for Prescribed Burn Emissions and Air Quality Impacts
	9542	Conference/Symposia/Workshop	Development of a Modeling System for Prescribed Burn Emissions and Air Quality Impacts
	9543	Conference/Symposia/Workshop	Evaluation of Air Quality Models Applied to Wildland Fire Impact Simulation
	9544	Conference/Symposia/Workshop	Modeling Biomass Burnings by Coupling a Sub-Grid Scale Plume Model with Adaptive Grid CMAQ
	9545	Conference/Symposia/Workshop	Modeling Biomass Burnings by Coupling a Sub-Grid Scale Plume Model with Adaptive Grid DMAQ
	9549	Conference/Symposia/Workshop	Modeling the Air Quality Impacts of Wildfires with CMAQ
	9550	Conference/Symposia/Workshop	Analysis of Vertical Fire Emissions Distribution in CMAQ
	9546	Conference/Symposia/Workshop	A High Resolution Modeling System for Regional Carbonaceous Aerosols
	9547	Conference/Symposia/Workshop	Modeling Biomass Burnings by Coupling a Sub-Grid Scale Plume Model with Adaptive Grid CMAQ
	9539	Photo	A mobile unit used for PM2.5 measurements at Eglin AFB
	9540	Photo	February 6, 2011 burn at Eglin AFB (703-C) from the vantage point of a mobile unit chasing the plume
	9538	Photo	Fernando Garcia-Menendez working on model evaluation.

Supporting Documents

There are no supporting documents available for this project.

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