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Project ID: 06-3-3-05

Year: 2006

Date Started: 08/31/2006

Date Completed: 08/31/2009

Title: Modeling Forest Change and Management Alternatives on a Restored Landscape

Project Proposal Abstract: This project will compare treatment methods and schedules for long-term maintenance of forest restoration treatments in a southwestern landscape, addressing tasks 3 (primarily) and 2 (secondarily) of JFSP AFP-3. We will apply a statistical forest simulation model and a process model to forecast changes to in tree structure, biomass, potential forest products, carbon and nutrients under alternative scenarios of treatments and scheduling. Management scenarios will be developed in collaboration with the BLM management staff to ensure that they are relevant and feasible in terms of costs and other constraints. The Central Rockies/Southwestern Ponderosa Pine variant of FVS with the Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) will be the statistical model used to simulate stand development for restored and control landscapes for the next 100 years. Ten-year growth increments will be used to scale the diameter increment model, and the site index will be set to values determined from field sampling. The Firesum model, as calibrated for southwestern ponderosa pine forests, will serve as the process model for the same period. Treatment success will be defined in terms of maintaining desired conditions of forest structure and function as outlined in the original project plans and the natural characteristics of the pre-fire-exclusion forest. The 'confidence envelope' around alternatives will be assessed in terms of the underlying variability among plots on the landscape (i.e., structural variability in the forest) and the uncertainty or likelihood of success of treatment implementation as estimated from the literature and managers' experience. Because we will use existing models and sites where the treatments have already been implemented and field data collected, the project will be rapid, cost-effective, and the techniques will be transferable to managers. By explicitly including a process model approach that is sensitive to variation in the environment, we will provide a realistic and reliable assessment of management options, including the degree of uncertainty associated with alternative approaches. This will give a solid information base for managers to evaluate schedules of maintenance treatments and to communicate with stakeholders.

Principal Investigator: Peter Z. Fule

Agency/Organization: Northern Arizona University

Branch or Dept: School of Forestry

Other Project Collaborators

Type	Name	Agency/Organization	Branch or Dept
Co-Principal Investigator	Wallace W. Covington	Northern Arizona University	School of Forestry
Co-Principal Investigator	Jason P. Kaye	Pennsylvania State University	Crop & Soil Sciences
Federal Cooperator	Dennis Curtis	BLM-Bureau of Land Management	Grand Canyon-Parashant National Monument

Project Locations

Consortium

Southern Rockies

Southwest

There are no project locations identified for this project.

Project Deliverables

Final Report ("Results presented in JFSP Final Reports may not have been peer-reviewed and should be interpreted as tentative until published in a peer-reviewed source.")

	ID	Type	Title
	9041	Refereed Publication	Future Climate Affects Management Strategies for Maintaining Forest Restoration Treatments

Supporting Documents

The following supporting documents are available for this project.

Brief

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