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Project ID: 06-1-1-12

Year: 2006

Date Started: 07/07/2006

Date Completed: 11/18/2009

Title: Rapid Response Field Observations to Calibrate the BlueSky Smoke Prediction Model

Project Proposal Abstract: The BlueSky smoke modeling framework, developed with support from the National Fire Plan, provides real-time predictions of surface smoke concentrations from prescribed fires, wildfires, and agricultural burns. The predictions are currently being used by air quality regulators and land managers to assess the impacts from planned and ongoing fires. We will calibrate and make model improvements to the BlueSky modeling framework through intensive observation / prediction comparisons of smoke concentrations. Observations will be made in rapid response to ongoing wildland fire use (WFU) fires in the western lower 48 states. WFU fires are chosen because they can exhibit significant growth over a long period, thereby maximizing the amount of data collected through each deployment. Wildfires will also be considered as appropriate. Prescribed fires have minimal smoke plumes and will not be considered. Two WFUs will be selected and monitored each year for each of 2 years. A large number of smoke monitors (15+) will be placed in an optimized array designed to best capture the smoke impact pattern. All monitoring will be away from the fire, reflecting downstream impacts, thereby negating any impacts on firefighting efforts. This process has been proven to be useful through the BlueSkyRAINS West 2005 demonstration project. The BlueSky modeling system will be run in real-time to compare predictions with observations, and will also be run after the fact with differing paramaterizations. Using standard statistical measures the best fit set of model parameters will be used to adjust all future BlueSky predictions. The result will be the calibration ("tuning") of the BlueSky framework for optimal model performance yielding an enhanced smoke prediction capability.

Principal Investigator: Narasimhan K. Larkin

Agency/Organization: Forest Service

Branch or Dept: PNW-AirFire Research Team

Other Project Collaborators

Type	Name	Agency/Organization	Branch or Dept
Co-Principal Investigator	Robert Solomon	Forest Service	PNW-Seattle-Managing Natural Disturbances
Co-Principal Investigator	Tara M. Strand	Forest Service	PNW-AirFire Research Team
Federal Cooperator	Narasimhan K. Larkin	Forest Service	PNW-AirFire Research Team

Project Locations

Consortium

Alaska

Appalachian

California

Great Basin

Great Plains

Lake States

Oak Woodlands

Northern Rockies

Northwest

Pacific

South

Southern Rockies

Southwest

Tallgrass

There are no project locations identified for this project.

Project Deliverables

Final Report ("Results presented in JFSP Final Reports may not have been peer-reviewed and should be interpreted as tentative until published in a peer-reviewed source.")

There are no deliverables available for this project.

Supporting Documents

There are no supporting documents available for this project.

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