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Project ID: 03-1-1-08

Year: 2003

Date Started: 07/30/2003

Date Completed: 03/23/2007

Title: Modeling Vegetation Phenology for the Assessment of Present and Future Fire Hazard Potential

Project Proposal Abstract: Real-time monitoring and predictive models of vegetation phenology will be developed to assess the current state of greenness of live vegetation as well as predict the timing of greenup and senescence events as a result of future climates. The real-time monitor will be based on satellite observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The phenology monitoring tool based on remote sensing will be coupled with a predictive model derived from surface weather observations to allow the forecasting of the effects of climatic change on vegetation phenology using data from General Circulation Models which simulate future climatic conditions. These tools will assess the present and future state of greenness over the Continental United States, Alaska and Hawaii. Both the vegetation monitor and weather-driven model will be in the form that they can be incorporated into the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) and the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS), which would then be able to provide better estimates of current and future fire hazard potential to meet both immediate and long-term fire an land management objectives.

Principal Investigator: William ’Matt’ M. Jolly

Agency/Organization: Forest Service

Branch or Dept: RMRS-Fire Sciences Lab-Missoula


Other Project Collaborators

Type

Name

Agency/Organization

Branch or Dept

Co-Principal Investigator

Larry Bradshaw

Forest Service

RMRS-Fire Sciences Lab-Missoula

Co-Principal Investigator

Steven W. Running

University of Montana

Department of Forest Management

Federal Cooperator

Patricia L. Andrews

Forest Service

RMRS-Fire Sciences Lab-Missoula


Project Locations

Consortium

Alaska

Appalachian

California

Great Basin

Great Plains

Lake States

Oak Woodlands

Northern Rockies

Northwest

Pacific

South

Southern Rockies

Southwest

Tallgrass


There are no project locations identified for this project.

Project Deliverables

Final Report view or print

("Results presented in JFSP Final Reports may not have been peer-reviewed and should be interpreted as tentative until published in a peer-reviewed source.")

  ID Type Title
    88 Ph.D. Dissertation A Near Realtime System for Monitoring the Foliar Phenology of the Terrestrial Biospher
    1779 Government Publication Analysis of Effects of Climate Change on Fire Potential
    1153 Government Publication A Mechanistic, Weather-Driven Greenness Model for the US National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS)
    3216 Journal Article Divergent Vegetation Growth Responses to the 2003 Heat Wave in the Swiss Alps
    2488 Journal Article Deriving Greenness State of Live Vegetation from MODIS Data and Incorporation into NFDRS
    2625 Journal Article A Flexible, Integrated System for Generating Meteorological Surfaces Derived from Point Sources Across Multiple Geographic Scales
    2637 Journal Article A Generalized, Bioclimatic Index to Predict Foliar Phenology in Response to Climate
    922 Computer Model/Software/Algorithm Greenness Model That Can Be Used With NFDRS
    924 Computer Model/Software/Algorithm Mechanistic Model to Predict Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation Greenness and Effects on Fire Potential
    925 Dataset (including spatial) Maps Showing Areas Where Climate Change has Greatest Impact on Fire Potential
    2989 Poster A Mechanistic, Weather-Driven Greenup Model for the National Fire Danger Rating System
    2991 Conference/Symposia/Workshop A Generalized, Bioclimatic Index to Predict Foliar Phenology in Response to Climate
    3229 Conference/Symposia/Workshop A Generalized Bioclimatic Index to Predict Foliar Phenology in Response to Climate
    3230 Invited Paper/Presentation A Mechanistic, Weather-Driven Greenup Model for the National Fire Danger Rating System
    3231 Invited Paper/Presentation A Mechanistic, Weather-Driven Greenup Model for the National Fire Danger Rating System
    3232 Training Session Southern Area Intermediate National Fire Danger Rating Course
    3233 Computer Model/Software/Algorithm The Growing Season Index Excel Toolkit
  go to website 3234 Website  
    3237 Conference/Symposia/Workshop A Mechanistic, Weather-Driven Greenness Model for The US National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS)
    3238 Invited Paper/Presentation A Generalized Bioclimatic Index to Predict Foliar Phenology in Response to Climate
    3239 Training Session Advanced National Fire Danger Rating Course
    3240 Training Session Northern Rockies Fire Behavior Workshop
    3241 Invited Paper/Presentation A Remote Sensing Primer
    5695 Invited Paper/Presentation A Mechanistic, Weather-Driven Greenup Model for the National Fire Danger Rating System

Supporting Documents

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