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Project ID: 03-1-1-08

Year: 2003

Date Started: 07/30/2003

Date Completed: 03/23/2007

Title: Modeling Vegetation Phenology for the Assessment of Present and Future Fire Hazard Potential

Project Proposal Abstract: Real-time monitoring and predictive models of vegetation phenology will be developed to assess the current state of greenness of live vegetation as well as predict the timing of greenup and senescence events as a result of future climates. The real-time monitor will be based on satellite observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The phenology monitoring tool based on remote sensing will be coupled with a predictive model derived from surface weather observations to allow the forecasting of the effects of climatic change on vegetation phenology using data from General Circulation Models which simulate future climatic conditions. These tools will assess the present and future state of greenness over the Continental United States, Alaska and Hawaii. Both the vegetation monitor and weather-driven model will be in the form that they can be incorporated into the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) and the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS), which would then be able to provide better estimates of current and future fire hazard potential to meet both immediate and long-term fire an land management objectives.

Principal Investigator: William ’Matt’ M. Jolly

Agency/Organization: Forest Service

Branch or Dept: RMRS-Fire Sciences Lab-Missoula

Other Project Collaborators

Type	Name	Agency/Organization	Branch or Dept
Co-Principal Investigator	Larry Bradshaw	Forest Service	RMRS-Fire Sciences Lab-Missoula
Co-Principal Investigator	Steven W. Running	University of Montana	Department of Forest Management
Federal Cooperator	Patricia L. Andrews	Forest Service	RMRS-Fire Sciences Lab-Missoula

Project Locations

Consortium

Alaska

Appalachian

California

Great Basin

Great Plains

Lake States

Oak Woodlands

Northern Rockies

Northwest

Pacific

South

Southern Rockies

Southwest

Tallgrass

There are no project locations identified for this project.

Project Deliverables

Final Report ("Results presented in JFSP Final Reports may not have been peer-reviewed and should be interpreted as tentative until published in a peer-reviewed source.")

There are no deliverables available for this project.

Supporting Documents

There are no supporting documents available for this project.

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