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Project ID: 01-1-6-08

Year: 2001

Date Started: 09/19/2001

Date Completed: 07/01/2005

Title: Predicting Lightning Risk

Project Proposal Abstract: Lightning causes most wildfires in the western United States, and is a major cause of fire elsewhere in the U.S. Because most lightning occurs with significant precipitation, however, simple predictions of Lightning Activity Level (LAL) do not accurately determine fire ignition potential. We propose to incorporate existing weather predictions into tactical fire preparedness and planning by adapting a methodology to assess the risk of "dry" lightning (that which occurs without accompanying rainfall). Based on atmospheric moisture and stability variables, we will develop discriminant rules that assign a probability of dry lightning over the United States, using a method that we created and tested in the northwestern U.S. (Rorig and Ferguson 1999). The results will be presented on maps and in tables that will be available via the Internet. In addition, we will apply and test the rule to mesoscale weather models (MM5) that currently operate in real-time support of fire weather predictions in Florida and the northwestern U 5, making the nile available for regional fire-weather modeling with MM5 being planned in other parts of the country Fire weather forecasters will be able to use these results to improve predictions of lightning-caused fire ignitions .

Principal Investigator: Miriam L. Rorig

Agency/Organization: Forest Service

Branch or Dept: PNW-Pacific Northwest Research Station

Other Project Collaborators

Type	Name	Agency/Organization	Branch or Dept
Co-Principal Investigator	Sue A. Ferguson	Forest Service	PNW-Seattle-Managing Natural Disturbances
Co-Principal Investigator	Scott L. Goodrick	Forest Service	SRS-Ctr for Forest Disturbance Science
Co-Principal Investigator	Paul A. Werth	Weather Research & Consulting Services	LLC Private Consultant
Federal Cooperator	Miriam L. Rorig	Forest Service	PNW-Pacific Northwest Research Station

Project Locations

Consortium

South

There are no project locations identified for this project.

Project Deliverables

Final Report ("Results presented in JFSP Final Reports may not have been peer-reviewed and should be interpreted as tentative until published in a peer-reviewed source.")

	ID	Type	Title
	5675	Refereed Publication	The 2000 Fire Season: Lightning-Caused Fires
	2076	Refereed Publication	Forecasting Dry Lightning in the Western United States

Supporting Documents

The following supporting documents are available for this project.

Brief

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