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Project ID: 01-1-6-07

Year: 2001

Date Started: 09/19/2001

Date Completed: 11/11/2004

Title: Assessing the Value of Mesoscale Models in Predicting Fire Danger

Project Proposal Abstract: Fine-scale weather data are becoming increasing available for fire weather and fire danger forecasting to support tactical fire preparedness and prescnbed fire planning. Unfortunately, appropriate techniques to implement the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) with short-range predictions of fine-scale weather do not exist Also, little is known about how accurate fine-scale models are compared to coarser-scale products. We propose to I) integrate NFDRS with fine-scale, numerical weather predictions (MM5) and test it in operational environments as a tool for anticipating wildfire danger and potential prescribed-fire opportunities and 2) use a case study of the 2000 fire season to identify appropriate spatial scales for fire danger assessments and predictions. This work supports regional modeling programs being developed under the 2000 Fire Plan (PNW-3, PSW-440l-1, NC-l,4, SRS-4104-l) and complements 2001 JFSP proposals to analyze and predict fire climate (Hostetler, Roads, Brown), develop an automated fire preparedness resource allocation system (Day), and apply a dry lightning algorithm to grid-point weather data (Rorig).

Principal Investigator: Jeanne Hoadley

Agency/Organization: Forest Service

Branch or Dept: PNW-Seattle-Managing Natural Disturbances

Other Project Collaborators

Type	Name	Agency/Organization	Branch or Dept
Co-Principal Investigator	Larry Bradshaw	Forest Service	RMRS-Fire Sciences Lab-Missoula
Co-Principal Investigator	Sue A. Ferguson	Forest Service	PNW-Seattle-Managing Natural Disturbances
Co-Principal Investigator	Scott L. Goodrick	Forest Service	SRS-Ctr for Forest Disturbance Science
Co-Principal Investigator	Paul A. Werth	Weather Research & Consulting Services	LLC Private Consultant
Collaborator/Contributor	Steven W. Hostetler	USGS-Geological Survey	Water Resources Division-Corvallis
Federal Cooperator	Jeanne Hoadley	Forest Service	PNW-Seattle-Managing Natural Disturbances

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Project Deliverables

Final Report ("Results presented in JFSP Final Reports may not have been peer-reviewed and should be interpreted as tentative until published in a peer-reviewed source.")

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Supporting Documents

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Brief

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